It's a weird title for the post but I tried to be optimistic about things! Four days to go before the Boxing Day Test, and India have managed a grand total of less than one day's practice on Australian pitches, with the bowlers getting none at all. Frankly, there is no reason for optimism here, but looking at the current bowling attack, I can see a slight silver lining (but only if I peer hard enough).
I know it might sound strange, but my thinking is this - apart from Zaheer and Pathan, none of the three remaining faster bowlers, R.P., Ishant and Pankaj Singh, have any experience of Test-level bowling on such pitches. To have bowled ten overs each in a rain-affected match against a weak Victoria side on an un-Australian pitch would have done little, if anything, to give them the much-needed practice.
There are some who might argue that little is better than nothing, but I would prefer for the bowlers to go into the Melbourne Test without any preconceived ideas about how the pitches in Australia will behave based on their tour match. If the match had been one that had pit India against a decent opposition on an Australian-type wicket without rain hovering all over the place to ruin things, it would have been a different matter. However, for that to have happened, an entity named the BCCI would have had to do things it had never done before, which would have involved some amount of prior planning. Since we know such an event can't happen, I would prefer that the bowlers who get their chance to go into the first Test do whatever works best for them.
Three days are not really going to hone an Ishant Sharma into a great bowler, and he might just as well do without the baggage of a less-than-great experience against Victoria, and keep in mind instead what he had done against Pakistan albeit on a very different kind of pitch.
This is where the roles of Zaheer and Pathan become crucial because they cannot afford to take as much time as the freshers would to get into their groove. We talk so much of experience, and it is in such situations - such as that in which the players find themselves now - that experience talks. Otherwise, there would be just no use of having played so much international cricket.
With Kumble certain to play, at least we are ensured of two experienced bowlers in him and Zaheer. While the pundits are talking about Pathan being in a fight for a slot, I think he will be in if not for any other reason than just because he has been there, done that and can bat, which are of prime importance for India to challenge the Australians. To put pressure on the Australians, the Indians must bat fast and score high, or else the Australian juggernaut would roll over them and not even shake. In fact, keeping in mind the Indian team's weak and inexperienced bowling attack, I expect that it will be formed keeping batting as the prime focus, and that itself might get Pathan a slot. One can't even dream of using five bowlers; forget it!
The final bowling slot should be a straight toss-up between Bhajji and Ishant; the selectos can't dream of playing Pankaj Singh at this stage. If the team goes for experience, Bhajji obviously stands a better chance, and if the team is decided on the basis of the pitch, then either can get in.
All said and done, the Indians need to keep in mind that in Australia, a constant attack will be the only way to have any hopes of doing well. A miracle might make this bowling attack lethal, but playing the percentages, it is the batting that could give India the edge. The bowlers will have to feed off a great batting display in order to unsettle the Australians; there is no other way.